Introduction
Global shippers are closing out 2025 in a highly dynamic environment shaped by new tariff moves, the end of duty-free thresholds for low-value goods, and diverging conditions across ocean, air, and ground freight. Businesses moving freight to and from North America, Europe, and Asia face a mix of soft underlying demand, policy uncertainty, and lane-specific congestion that demands careful planning.
R&R Global Logistics (RRGLS) has summarized the latest developments to help you navigate Q4 and prepare for 2026.
1. Duty-Free Exemptions Tighten in the U.K., EU, and U.S.
The U.K. plans to eliminate its duty-free exemption for goods valued under £135 by March 2029, ending customs duty relief on many low-value parcels that currently only incur VAT. A public consultation running through March 6, 2026 will inform how these changes are implemented, including tariff treatment, data requirements, potential administration fees, and VAT collection models.
This move mirrors broader tightening across major markets. The EU has already announced the phase-out of its €150 duty-free threshold starting as soon as 2026, with a longer-term framework linked to an EU Customs Data Hub target for 2028. In the U.S., the de minimis exemption for low-value shipments was removed in August, signaling a clear global trend toward more duties, more data, and tighter compliance requirements on small-parcel cross-border eCommerce.
2. Tariff Landscape: Softening in Some Areas, New Pressures in Others
Tariff policy remains a major driver of sourcing and routing decisions, with some relief emerging even as new measures are introduced.
- U.S.–EU steel and aluminum: U.S. officials have suggested potential reductions in steel and aluminum tariffs on the EU, contingent on a “balanced” EU approach to digital regulations affecting major U.S. tech companies. This could later translate into adjusted tariff rate quotas and collaborative tools aimed at addressing overcapacity, particularly with respect to Chinese production.
- Brazil agricultural imports: New U.S. executive orders in mid and late November expanded exemptions for Brazilian goods from an additional 40% tariff introduced earlier in 2025, fully exempting some agricultural imports—including coffee and beef—from both the 10% reciprocal tariff and the extra 40% rate.
- New trade frameworks: The U.S. has released draft frameworks with Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Argentina, Guatemala, Ecuador, and El Salvador, signaling minimum tariff floors in some cases and targeted reciprocal tariff relief for goods that cannot be competitively produced in the U.S.
At the same time, Section 232 and IEEPA-based tariffs remain under legal review. The U.S. Supreme Court has heard arguments on the legality of the administration’s IEEPA tariffs, and an adverse ruling could force U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) to halt duty collection and develop refund mechanisms while new measures under other statutes are considered.
3. North America Freight Market: Volumes and Rates Under Pressure
While global policy headlines focus on tariffs and exemptions, the underlying U.S. freight market is feeling the impact of softer goods demand, front-loaded imports, and cautious consumer behavior.
According to recent market analysis, truckload volumes for van, refrigerated, and flatbed equipment declined both month over month and year over year in October, with spot rates at or near two-year lows. Import volumes are forecast to fall sharply through the end of 2025, with some projections calling for a mid-teens percentage decline in U.S. imports in December versus the prior year.
Shippers have been drawing down inventory built earlier in the year to manage tariff exposure and weaker retail demand, leading to what many describe as a “missing” traditional holiday peak season. Sectors such as furniture, toys, and some electronics have seen particularly steep pullbacks, underscoring a structural shift in consumer spending toward services and value-focused purchases.
4. Labor, Capacity, and Overcapacity Risks
Reduced import flows are translating into fewer work opportunities for dock labor, truck drivers, and warehouse staff, raising concerns about job security in key U.S. gateways. In parallel, overcapacity remains a structural headwind: container utilization has fallen from near 100% to the low 90% range, and industry analysts warn of a prolonged period of excess capacity in both ocean and domestic freight networks.
Tariffs on India and other markets have also reshaped trade flows. For example, Indian exports to the U.S. have experienced a steep decline by value in 2025, coinciding with high tariff levels that have eroded competitiveness in certain categories. This environment reinforces the value of diversified sourcing, flexible routing, and strong relationships with asset-based and non-asset logistics partners.
5. Ocean Freight: Mixed Conditions by Trade Lane
Ocean market conditions vary significantly by corridor, with carriers relying heavily on capacity management.
Trans-Pacific Eastbound (TPEB)
On Asia–North America trades, demand remains broadly flat, and the anticipated cargo surge tied to November 1 tariff expectations did not fully materialize. Capacity is expected to trend toward roughly 80–90% utilization in December as carriers adjust networks, but November spot rates continued to soften after an earlier General Rate Increase (GRI) was effectively rolled back.
Carriers still plan a December 1 GRI and have postponed Peak Season Surcharges (PSS) to mid-December, though whether these increases hold will depend on actual booking patterns.
Far East Westbound (FEWB)
On Asia–Europe routes, demand has moderately recovered compared to prior months, in part because some export flows have shifted off Trans-Pacific lanes into EU-bound volumes. Equipment availability is broadly balanced, but carriers are using blank sailings and targeted weekly capacity cuts of around 10% to firm up spot rates and support December GRI levels.
As Europe prepares to end its low-value duty-free threshold and roll out the EU Customs Data Hub, inbound volumes may see further structural support—alongside increased compliance and data-reporting requirements for eCommerce shipments.
Trans-Atlantic Westbound (TAWB)
North Europe and Mediterranean ports continue to grapple with congestion, driven by labor actions, inland bottlenecks, and infrastructure constraints. Yard utilization is high and schedule reliability remains under pressure, while critical container and chassis shortages persist in markets such as Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, Southern and Eastern Germany, and Portugal.
Due to weak overall demand, carriers are holding or extending current rates for North Europe and West Mediterranean services, and deferring some previously planned Peak Season Surcharges for East Mediterranean lanes into early 2026.
Indian Subcontinent to North America
Flows from the Indian subcontinent to the U.S. remain subdued following tariff escalations earlier in the year. Carriers have deployed blank sailings through at least December to rebalance supply and demand, with particularly soft conditions into the U.S. East Coast.
To the U.S. West Coast, capacity is still available, supported by oversupply on core Trans-Pacific services. As a result, rates to the West Coast remain under downward pressure even as carriers manage capacity more aggressively.
6. Ex-Asia Air Freight: Tight Capacity and Rising Rates
While many ocean and trucking segments face slack, ex-Asia air freight is running hot.
- North China: Trans-Pacific air lanes are seeing sharp demand increases, driven largely by eCommerce exports and high-tech cargo, with the strongest pressure on U.S. East Coast routes.
- South China and Southeast Asia: Seasonal peaks and pre-holiday shipments are tightening capacity further, with most markets recommending bookings at least a week in advance to secure uplift.
- Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand: Across these hubs, strong demand into both North America and Europe is straining available capacity, fueling rate increases and lengthening lead times.
For shippers, this means air should be reserved for truly time-critical or high-margin cargo, while ocean, expedited LCL, or intermodal solutions should be evaluated for cost-sensitive freight.
7. What Shippers Should Do Now
Given the convergence of tariff changes, duty-free reforms, and uneven freight demand, RRGLS recommends several practical steps for late 2025 and early 2026:
- Audit tariff exposure and routing: Map your current HS classifications, origins, and destinations against new and upcoming tariff and duty-free changes in the U.S., U.K., and EU.
- Revisit contract structure: Use a blend of short-term ocean contracts and index-linked or spot exposure where appropriate, particularly on volatile Trans-Pacific and Asia–Europe lanes.
- Diversify modes and gateways: Where feasible, diversify ports of entry, add alternative inland routings, and consider LCL or intermodal as a buffer between air and full-container solutions.
- Plan earlier, especially for air: For ex-Asia air freight, lock capacity well in advance and prioritize SKUs to ensure the highest-value cargo gets uplift first.
- Strengthen visibility and scenario planning: Use real-time data on lead times, dwell, and capacity to anticipate disruptions and model the impact of further policy shifts, particularly around Supreme Court tariff rulings and duty-free reforms.
How R&R Global Logistics Supports You
R&R Global Logistics helps shippers across the U.S., Mexico, and Canada translate these policy and market signals into practical routing, contracting, and mode decisions. Services include tariff and duty impact analysis, customs and compliance coordination, and multimodal transportation planning tailored to each shipper’s risk profile and service requirements.
As November 2025 closes, close collaboration with a trusted 3PL partner is essential to stay agile, protect margins, and prepare your supply chain for another year of uncertainty and opportunity.